Why this page exists
The 32.5%-of-charges arbitration basis was retired 2026-08-01 — Maywell's 2026 NF chargemaster runs 8–25× the NF fee schedule (20553 bills $1,500 / pays $132 · 62321 bills $8,000 / pays $608 · 64635 bills $22,000 / pays $810), so percent-of-charges cannot value an unpaid line. Across H1-26 the old method overvalued unpaid NF by roughly $226K.The completion-factor triangle v6 recommended cannot be built: Brian's ruling 2026-08-16 — the money comes from arbitrations not yet won, so there are no posting dates to export. This log is the replacement. Every award entered here moves the estimate from assumption to measurement.
| Claim / ref | Carrier | CPT | Charges $ | Filed | Award date | Award $ | Status | Mo | % chg |
|---|
Measured, by carrier
Computed only from resolved cases. Fewer than 3 resolved = an anecdote, and it says so.
Prior expectations, for comparison only — do not treat as measurement.
From v6 NF Carrier x Code (mature lines, >180d): State Farm pays 74% of lines at 20.6% of charges (best) · Erie 23.4% of charges · GEICO 72% / 15.5% · Progressive pays 82% of lines but only 9.4% of charges (pays E/M, stiffs drugs and supplies) · American Transit and Kemper = $0 on 113 combined mature lines / $190K charges — pure arbitration lanes.
[EXT] No official AAA provider-wide win-rate statistics are published. NF collection firms self-report 70–80% — a self-selected sample, so treat 80% as a ceiling, not an expectation. Every case passes a mandatory 90-day conciliation phase before an arbitrator sees it; payment is due within 30 days of the award.
Owner: Kyle builds and keeps the log; Deb feeds filings. 30/60/90 item 37. When resolved cases pass ~20, re-price every pending ledger — Sara's included.
From v6 NF Carrier x Code (mature lines, >180d): State Farm pays 74% of lines at 20.6% of charges (best) · Erie 23.4% of charges · GEICO 72% / 15.5% · Progressive pays 82% of lines but only 9.4% of charges (pays E/M, stiffs drugs and supplies) · American Transit and Kemper = $0 on 113 combined mature lines / $190K charges — pure arbitration lanes.
[EXT] No official AAA provider-wide win-rate statistics are published. NF collection firms self-report 70–80% — a self-selected sample, so treat 80% as a ceiling, not an expectation. Every case passes a mandatory 90-day conciliation phase before an arbitrator sees it; payment is due within 30 days of the award.
Owner: Kyle builds and keeps the log; Deb feeds filings. 30/60/90 item 37. When resolved cases pass ~20, re-price every pending ledger — Sara's included.