The three managed numbers
These run the whole arc, 90 days through year 2. Everything else is diagnostic.
The two structural numbers
New as of 2026-08-16 — measured from the source-of-truth dataset, not estimated. Both are pure upside: demand already exists and is being lost.
Tracked, not staged
Billing owns the AR burn-down (Brian's ruling, 2026-08-16) — it gets a number here and nothing else. Attribution is the gate on every marketing figure above.
Gate checks
From MAYWELL_30_60_90_2026-08-16.md and the horizon plan. Tick them when they're true, not when they're started.
History
| Week | CPA | Trial→perm | Members | True-loss % | Booking % | AR HOLD $M | Unattrib % |
|---|
Baselines are measured, not assumed. New patients 73.4/mo · collected $2,742,803 (2023-10 → 2026-08-26 service dates, exact — restated 2026-09-04 from the 08-30 payment export; the prior $2,478,364 was v4's 07-12 cut and understated 2026-05/06/07 by ~$189K of claim lag) · kept visits ~771/mo (2026 Jan–Jul), Jul-26 = 846 · rev/visit $227 history basis, $279–323 corrected accrual.
Sources: 40_DATA/_SOURCE_OF_TRUTH/ (v4 + v6 + the 2026-08 Athena exports) + “CPT Analysis - Payment” 2026-08-30.
Do not put an arbitration-derived number on this board without its basis. The 32.5%-of-charges method was retired 2026-08-01 — the NF chargemaster runs 8–25× fee schedule. Use the arbitration tracker's measured curve as awards land.
Do not put an arbitration-derived number on this board without its basis. The 32.5%-of-charges method was retired 2026-08-01 — the NF chargemaster runs 8–25× fee schedule. Use the arbitration tracker's measured curve as awards land.